44 events13 periods12 connectors
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{ "events": [ { "id": "event-fourier-greenhouse", "info": "Joseph Fourier calculates that the Earth would be far colder without an atmosphere, proposing that gases in the air trap heat like glass in a greenhouse. This foundational insight launches the study of what will later be called the greenhouse effect.", "name": "Greenhouse Effect Described", "time": { "unit": "ce", "value": 1824 }, "relates_to": "period-early-science" }, { "id": "event-tyndall-co2", "info": "John Tyndall demonstrates experimentally that carbon dioxide and water vapor absorb infrared radiation, proving that specific atmospheric gases are responsible for trapping heat. He recognizes that changes in these gases could alter climate.", "name": "Tyndall Identifies CO₂ as Heat-Trapping Gas", "time": { "unit": "ce", "value": 1859 }, "relates_to": "period-early-science" }, { "id": "event-arrhenius-calculation", "info": "Svante Arrhenius calculates that doubling atmospheric CO₂ would raise global temperatures by roughly 5°C. Though his estimate is somewhat high by modern standards, it is the first quantitative prediction of CO₂-driven warming.", "name": "Arrhenius Predicts CO₂ Warming", "time": { "unit": "ce", "value": 1896 }, "relates_to": "period-early-science" }, { "id": "event-industrial-co2-rise", "info": "Atmospheric CO₂ begins rising measurably above the pre-industrial level of roughly 280 ppm. The widespread burning of coal for industry and transport is the primary driver, though the significance won't be fully understood for decades.", "name": "CO₂ Passes Pre-Industrial Baseline", "time": { "unit": "ce", "value": 1900 }, "relates_to": "period-industrial-acceleration" }, { "id": "event-callendar-warming", "info": "Guy Stewart Callendar compiles temperature records showing the Earth is warming and argues that rising CO₂ from fossil fuel combustion is the cause. The scientific community is largely skeptical, but his work revives interest in CO₂ and climate.", "name": "Callendar Links Fossil Fuels to Warming", "time": { "unit": "ce", "value": 1938 }, "relates_to": "period-industrial-acceleration" }, { "id": "event-keeling-curve", "info": "Charles David Keeling begins continuous CO₂ measurements at Mauna Loa Observatory in Hawaii. His data reveals a steady annual rise and seasonal oscillation, producing the iconic 'Keeling Curve'—the most important dataset in climate science.", "name": "Keeling Curve Begins", "time": { "unit": "ce", "value": 1958 }, "relates_to": "period-awareness-era" }, { "id": "event-co2-passes-315", "info": "The first Keeling Curve measurements record atmospheric CO₂ at approximately 315 ppm, already 35 ppm above the pre-industrial level of 280 ppm. The relentless upward trend will continue unbroken for decades.", "name": "CO₂ Reaches 315 ppm", "time": { "unit": "ce", "value": 1958 }, "relates_to": "period-awareness-era" }, { "id": "event-first-climate-model", "info": "Syukuro Manabe and Richard Wetherald publish the first credible computational climate model showing that doubling CO₂ would raise surface temperatures by about 2°C. This pioneering work earns Manabe a share of the 2021 Nobel Prize in Physics.", "name": "First Modern Climate Model", "time": { "unit": "ce", "value": 1967 }, "relates_to": "period-awareness-era" }, { "id": "event-first-earth-day", "info": "Twenty million Americans participate in the first Earth Day, marking the birth of the modern environmental movement. While focused broadly on pollution, the event galvanizes public concern about humanity's impact on the planet.", "name": "First Earth Day", "time": { "unit": "ce", "value": 1970 }, "relates_to": "period-awareness-era" }, { "id": "event-exxon-research", "info": "Exxon's own scientists begin internal research confirming that fossil fuel combustion is warming the planet. Their projections prove remarkably accurate, yet the company will later fund campaigns to cast doubt on climate science for decades.", "name": "Exxon's Internal Climate Research", "time": { "unit": "ce", "value": 1977 }, "relates_to": "period-awareness-era" }, { "id": "event-hansen-testimony", "info": "NASA scientist James Hansen testifies before the U.S. Senate that global warming is already underway and is caused by greenhouse gases. His dramatic testimony during a sweltering Washington heat wave brings climate change into mainstream political discourse.", "name": "Hansen's Congressional Testimony", "time": { "unit": "ce", "value": 1988 }, "relates_to": "period-political-action" }, { "id": "event-ipcc-founded", "info": "The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change is created by the UN to assess climate science. Its periodic assessment reports become the authoritative synthesis of climate research, guiding international policy for decades.", "name": "IPCC Established", "time": { "unit": "ce", "value": 1988 }, "relates_to": "period-political-action" }, { "id": "event-first-ipcc-report", "info": "The IPCC's first report confirms that human activities are increasing greenhouse gas concentrations and that this will enhance the greenhouse effect, resulting in additional warming. It calls for international action.", "name": "First IPCC Assessment Report", "time": { "unit": "ce", "value": 1990 }, "relates_to": "period-political-action" }, { "id": "event-rio-earth-summit", "info": "The UN Framework Convention on Climate Change is adopted at the Earth Summit in Rio de Janeiro. Nearly every nation agrees to stabilize greenhouse gas concentrations at a level that prevents dangerous interference with the climate system.", "name": "Rio Earth Summit (UNFCCC)", "time": { "unit": "ce", "value": 1992 }, "relates_to": "period-political-action" }, { "id": "event-kyoto-protocol", "info": "The first binding international treaty to reduce greenhouse gas emissions is adopted. Industrialized nations commit to specific reduction targets. The U.S. signs but never ratifies it. The protocol proves limited but establishes the framework for future agreements.", "name": "Kyoto Protocol Adopted", "time": { "unit": "ce", "value": 1997 }, "relates_to": "period-political-action" }, { "id": "event-hockey-stick", "info": "Michael Mann and colleagues publish a temperature reconstruction showing that late 20th-century warming is unprecedented in at least 1,000 years. The 'hockey stick' shape—flat for centuries then sharply rising—becomes both iconic and politically controversial.", "name": "Hockey Stick Graph Published", "time": { "unit": "ce", "value": 1998 }, "relates_to": "period-political-action" }, { "id": "event-co2-passes-370", "info": "Atmospheric CO₂ passes 370 ppm as global emissions continue to accelerate, driven by economic growth in China, India, and other developing nations. The rate of increase is faster than at any point in the Keeling Curve record.", "name": "CO₂ Reaches 370 ppm", "time": { "unit": "ce", "value": 2000 }, "relates_to": "period-acceleration-crisis" }, { "id": "event-gore-inconvenient-truth", "info": "Al Gore's documentary brings climate science to a mass audience, winning an Academy Award. Gore and the IPCC jointly receive the 2007 Nobel Peace Prize. The film significantly raises public awareness but also deepens political polarization on the issue.", "name": "An Inconvenient Truth", "time": { "unit": "ce", "value": 2006 }, "relates_to": "period-acceleration-crisis" }, { "id": "event-arctic-sea-ice-record", "info": "Arctic summer sea ice extent crashes to a record minimum, losing an area the size of Alaska compared to the long-term average. The dramatic decline shocks scientists and becomes a visible symbol of planetary warming.", "name": "Arctic Sea Ice Record Low", "time": { "unit": "ce", "value": 2007 }, "relates_to": "period-acceleration-crisis" }, { "id": "event-copenhagen-failure", "info": "The Copenhagen climate conference fails to produce a binding agreement, widely regarded as a diplomatic failure. The non-binding Copenhagen Accord acknowledges the goal of limiting warming to 2°C but includes no enforcement mechanism.", "name": "Copenhagen Climate Summit", "time": { "unit": "ce", "value": 2009 }, "relates_to": "period-acceleration-crisis" }, { "id": "event-co2-passes-400", "info": "Atmospheric CO₂ surpasses 400 ppm for the first time in at least 3 million years. The last time concentrations were this high, sea levels were 15–25 meters higher and trees grew at the South Pole.", "name": "CO₂ Passes 400 ppm", "time": { "unit": "ce", "value": 2013 }, "relates_to": "period-acceleration-crisis" }, { "id": "event-paris-agreement", "info": "195 nations agree to limit global warming to well below 2°C above pre-industrial levels, with efforts to limit it to 1.5°C. Unlike Kyoto, each nation sets its own targets. It is the most comprehensive climate agreement in history, though pledges remain insufficient.", "name": "Paris Agreement Signed", "time": { "unit": "ce", "value": 2015 }, "relates_to": "period-acceleration-crisis" }, { "id": "event-1-5-report", "info": "The IPCC finds that limiting warming to 1.5°C rather than 2°C would significantly reduce risks of drought, floods, extreme heat, and poverty for hundreds of millions of people. It calls for cutting emissions 45% by 2030 and reaching net zero by 2050.", "name": "IPCC 1.5°C Special Report", "time": { "unit": "ce", "value": 2018 }, "relates_to": "period-acceleration-crisis" }, { "id": "event-greta-thunberg", "info": "Inspired by Greta Thunberg's solo school strike in Sweden, millions of young people in over 150 countries join climate strikes. The movement reframes climate change as an issue of intergenerational justice and puts unprecedented social pressure on leaders.", "name": "Youth Climate Strikes Go Global", "time": { "unit": "ce", "value": 2019 }, "relates_to": "period-acceleration-crisis" }, { "id": "event-covid-emissions-drop", "info": "Global CO₂ emissions drop roughly 5.4% as pandemic lockdowns halt travel and economic activity. The temporary dip illustrates both how deeply fossil fuels are embedded in the economy and how quickly emissions rebound when activity resumes.", "name": "COVID-19 Emissions Drop", "time": { "unit": "ce", "value": 2020 }, "relates_to": "period-acceleration-crisis" }, { "id": "event-1-1-degree-passed", "info": "The IPCC Sixth Assessment Report confirms that global surface temperature has risen approximately 1.1°C above the 1850–1900 baseline. Human influence is declared unequivocal. Every fraction of additional warming increases risks of extreme weather, ecosystem collapse, and human suffering.", "name": "Global Temperature Exceeds 1.1°C Above Pre-Industrial", "time": { "unit": "ce", "value": 2021 }, "relates_to": "period-acceleration-crisis" }, { "id": "event-ira-signed", "info": "The largest climate investment in U.S. history allocates roughly $370 billion toward clean energy, electric vehicles, and emissions reduction. It accelerates the energy transition domestically and triggers a global race for clean energy manufacturing.", "name": "U.S. Inflation Reduction Act", "time": { "unit": "ce", "value": 2022 }, "relates_to": "period-acceleration-crisis" }, { "id": "event-2023-hottest-year", "info": "2023 becomes the hottest year in at least 125,000 years of human existence, with global temperatures briefly exceeding 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels. Record ocean temperatures, devastating wildfires, and extreme heat events affect every continent.", "name": "2023: Hottest Year on Record", "time": { "unit": "ce", "value": 2023 }, "relates_to": "period-acceleration-crisis" }, { "id": "event-co2-passes-425", "info": "Atmospheric CO₂ surpasses 425 ppm. Despite rapid growth in renewable energy, global fossil fuel consumption continues to rise. The gap between climate ambition and actual emissions reductions remains dangerously wide.", "name": "CO₂ Passes 425 ppm", "time": { "unit": "ce", "value": 2024 }, "relates_to": "period-acceleration-crisis" }, { "id": "event-1-5-threshold", "info": "Under most scenarios, global average temperature exceeds 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels on a sustained annual basis. While the Paris Agreement's aspirational limit is surpassed, the degree of overshoot depends on near-term emissions cuts.", "name": "1.5°C Threshold Likely Breached (Annual Average)", "time": { "unit": "ce", "value": 2030 }, "relates_to": "period-critical-decade" }, { "id": "event-renewable-dominance", "info": "Solar and wind energy account for the majority of new electricity generation capacity worldwide. Costs continue to fall, and battery storage improves. However, replacing existing fossil fuel infrastructure and addressing industrial emissions remain enormous challenges.", "name": "Renewables Become Dominant New Power Source", "time": { "unit": "ce", "value": 2030 }, "relates_to": "period-critical-decade" }, { "id": "event-ev-tipping-point", "info": "Electric vehicles surpass internal combustion engine sales in most major markets as multiple countries implement ICE bans. Charging infrastructure expands, battery costs drop, and the transportation sector's emissions begin a structural decline.", "name": "Electric Vehicles Reach Mass Adoption", "time": { "unit": "ce", "value": 2035 }, "relates_to": "period-critical-decade" }, { "id": "event-arctic-ice-free-summer", "info": "The Arctic Ocean experiences its first practically ice-free summer, a milestone not seen in over 100,000 years. This accelerates regional warming through reduced albedo, disrupts Arctic ecosystems, and alters weather patterns across the Northern Hemisphere.", "name": "First Ice-Free Arctic Summer", "time": { "unit": "ce", "value": 2040 }, "relates_to": "period-mid-century" }, { "id": "event-coral-reef-collapse", "info": "At 1.5–2°C of warming, over 70–90% of tropical coral reefs have degraded or died. The loss devastates marine biodiversity, fisheries that feed hundreds of millions of people, and coastal protection from storms.", "name": "Widespread Coral Reef Collapse", "time": { "unit": "ce", "value": 2040 }, "relates_to": "period-mid-century" }, { "id": "event-net-zero-target", "info": "The target date for global net-zero emissions under most Paris-aligned scenarios. Whether this is achieved depends on decisions made in the 2020s and 2030s. Carbon capture, green hydrogen, and transformed agriculture must all play roles alongside renewables.", "name": "Global Net-Zero Target Date", "time": { "unit": "ce", "value": 2050 }, "relates_to": "period-mid-century" }, { "id": "event-sea-level-half-meter", "info": "Global mean sea level rises approximately 0.3–0.5 meters above 2000 levels, threatening coastal cities, low-lying islands, and hundreds of millions of people. Storm surges, flooding, and saltwater intrusion become significantly more damaging.", "name": "Sea Level Rise Reaches ~0.5 Meters", "time": { "unit": "ce", "value": 2050 }, "relates_to": "period-mid-century" }, { "id": "event-climate-migration", "info": "The World Bank projects up to 216 million internal climate migrants across six regions by 2050, driven by water scarcity, crop failure, rising seas, and extreme heat. Climate migration reshapes demographics and tests international cooperation.", "name": "Large-Scale Climate Migration", "time": { "unit": "ce", "value": 2050 }, "relates_to": "period-mid-century" }, { "id": "event-2c-threshold", "info": "Under high-emission pathways, global average temperature exceeds 2°C above pre-industrial levels. This crosses key tipping points: accelerated ice sheet loss, permafrost thaw releasing stored carbon, and potential Amazon dieback. Low-emission scenarios may hold below this level.", "name": "2°C Threshold in High-Emission Scenarios", "time": { "unit": "ce", "value": 2060 }, "relates_to": "period-long-term" }, { "id": "event-sea-level-one-meter", "info": "Under moderate to high emission scenarios, sea levels rise 0.6–1.1 meters by 2100, with continued rise locked in for centuries. Major coastal cities face existential choices between massive adaptation, managed retreat, or catastrophic flooding.", "name": "Sea Level Rise Approaches 1 Meter", "time": { "unit": "ce", "value": 2100 }, "relates_to": "period-long-term" }, { "id": "event-high-emission-scenario", "info": "If emissions are not sharply curtailed, warming could reach 3–4°C by 2100. This would mean extreme heat events affecting billions, severe food and water insecurity, widespread species extinction, and potential collapse of major ice sheets committing the world to many meters of sea level rise.", "name": "3–4°C Warming (High-Emission Pathway)", "time": { "unit": "ce", "value": 2100 }, "relates_to": "period-long-term" }, { "id": "event-low-emission-scenario", "info": "Under aggressive decarbonization and potential carbon removal, warming stabilizes near 1.5–2°C. Significant impacts still occur—more extreme weather, biodiversity loss, sea level rise—but catastrophic tipping points are largely avoided and adaptation remains feasible.", "name": "1.5–2°C Stabilization (Low-Emission Pathway)", "time": { "unit": "ce", "value": 2100 }, "relates_to": "period-long-term" }, { "id": "event-multi-meter-sea-rise", "info": "Regardless of pathway, thermal expansion and ice sheet dynamics commit the world to several meters of sea level rise over centuries. Under high-emission scenarios, eventual rise of 5–15+ meters would reshape coastlines and displace billions.", "name": "Multi-Meter Sea Level Rise Committed", "time": { "unit": "ce", "value": 2300 }, "relates_to": "period-deep-future" }, { "id": "event-ice-sheet-fate", "info": "The long-term fate of the great ice sheets depends on peak warming. Complete loss of Greenland's ice (over millennia) adds ~7 meters to sea levels. West Antarctic collapse adds ~3–5 meters. Both may become irreversible above 2–3°C of sustained warming.", "name": "Fate of Greenland and Antarctic Ice Sheets", "time": { "unit": "ce", "value": 2500 }, "relates_to": "period-deep-future" }, { "id": "event-co2-persistence", "info": "Roughly 20–40% of emitted CO₂ remains in the atmosphere for thousands of years. The climate legacy of 21st-century emissions extends far beyond any human planning horizon, making current decisions consequential for hundreds of generations.", "name": "CO₂ Persists for Millennia", "time": { "unit": "ce", "value": 3000 }, "relates_to": "period-deep-future" } ], "periods": [ { "id": "period-early-science", "info": "Pioneering scientists discover the greenhouse effect and predict that fossil fuel combustion could warm the planet. These insights are largely theoretical, and the scientific community remains divided. CO₂ levels begin rising but the changes are not yet measurable with precision.", "name": "Early Climate Science", "endTime": { "unit": "ce", "value": 1950 }, "startTime": { "unit": "ce", "value": 1820 } }, { "id": "period-industrial-acceleration", "info": "Industrialization spreads from Europe and North America across the globe. Coal, oil, and natural gas become the backbone of modern economies. CO₂ emissions rise exponentially, though the climatic consequences are not yet widely recognized.", "name": "Industrial Emissions Accelerate", "endTime": { "unit": "ce", "value": 1960 }, "startTime": { "unit": "ce", "value": 1870 } }, { "id": "period-awareness-era", "info": "Systematic measurement of CO₂ and development of climate models transforms climate change from speculation to established science. Environmental awareness grows, though climate change is not yet a top public or political concern.", "name": "Measurement & Awareness", "endTime": { "unit": "ce", "value": 1988 }, "startTime": { "unit": "ce", "value": 1958 } }, { "id": "period-political-action", "info": "Climate change enters the political arena. The IPCC is established, the UNFCCC is signed, and the Kyoto Protocol is adopted. Scientific consensus solidifies while fossil fuel industry campaigns sow doubt. Emissions continue rising.", "name": "International Negotiations", "endTime": { "unit": "ce", "value": 2005 }, "startTime": { "unit": "ce", "value": 1988 } }, { "id": "period-acceleration-crisis", "info": "Observable climate impacts intensify—record temperatures, wildfires, floods, and hurricanes. The Paris Agreement sets ambitious goals, but the gap between pledges and action grows. Renewable energy surges but cannot yet match the pace of rising demand. This is the decisive period.", "name": "Accelerating Crisis", "endTime": { "unit": "ce", "value": 2030 }, "startTime": { "unit": "ce", "value": 2005 } }, { "id": "period-critical-decade", "info": "Scientists identify this decade as the make-or-break period for climate action. Emissions must peak and begin declining steeply to keep 1.5°C within reach. Energy transition accelerates, but incumbent fossil fuel infrastructure and political resistance create friction.", "name": "The Critical Decade", "endTime": { "unit": "ce", "value": 2035 }, "startTime": { "unit": "ce", "value": 2025 } }, { "id": "period-mid-century", "info": "The consequences of decisions made in the 2020s and 2030s become clearly visible. Under low-emission scenarios, the energy transition is largely complete and warming stabilizes. Under high-emission scenarios, cascading impacts stress ecosystems, economies, and societies worldwide.", "name": "Mid-Century Reckoning", "endTime": { "unit": "ce", "value": 2070 }, "startTime": { "unit": "ce", "value": 2035 } }, { "id": "period-long-term", "info": "Climate pathways diverge dramatically depending on cumulative emissions. Scenarios range from a stabilized 1.5–2°C world with manageable adaptation to a 3–4°C+ world facing severe disruption. Sea level rise, ecosystem transformation, and human migration continue for centuries.", "name": "Long-Term Trajectories", "endTime": { "unit": "ce", "value": 2200 }, "startTime": { "unit": "ce", "value": 2070 } }, { "id": "period-deep-future", "info": "The long tail of climate change extends millennia. CO₂ persists in the atmosphere, ice sheets slowly respond to peak warming, and sea levels continue adjusting. The fossil fuel era—a few centuries of human history—shapes planetary conditions for thousands of years.", "name": "Deep Future Legacy", "endTime": { "unit": "ce", "value": 3500 }, "startTime": { "unit": "ce", "value": 2200 } }, { "id": "period-fossil-fuel-era", "info": "From the Industrial Revolution through the mid-21st century, fossil fuels—coal, oil, and natural gas—power human civilization's explosive growth. They enable unprecedented prosperity and technological advancement while fundamentally altering Earth's atmosphere and climate.", "name": "Fossil Fuel Era", "endTime": { "unit": "ce", "value": 2050 }, "startTime": { "unit": "ce", "value": 1760 } }, { "id": "period-great-acceleration", "info": "After World War II, population, economic output, energy use, and CO₂ emissions all surge exponentially. Nearly half of all fossil fuel CO₂ ever emitted is released after 1990. Human activity becomes the dominant force shaping Earth systems—the hallmark of the Anthropocene.", "name": "The Great Acceleration", "startTime": { "unit": "ce", "value": 1950 } }, { "id": "period-energy-transition", "info": "The shift from fossil fuels to renewable energy, electrification, and efficiency gains accelerates. Solar and wind costs plummet, electric vehicles scale, and green hydrogen emerges. The pace of transition determines which climate pathway humanity follows.", "name": "Energy Transition", "endTime": { "unit": "ce", "value": 2060 }, "startTime": { "unit": "ce", "value": 2010 } }, { "id": "period-adaptation-era", "info": "As climate impacts become unavoidable regardless of emissions pathway, societies invest heavily in adaptation: sea walls, drought-resistant crops, heat-resilient cities, climate-informed infrastructure, managed retreat from vulnerable areas, and systems to support displaced populations.", "name": "Adaptation Era", "endTime": { "unit": "ce", "value": 2050 }, "startTime": { "unit": "ce", "value": 2030 } } ], "connectors": [ { "id": "conn-science-to-awareness", "toId": "period-awareness-era", "type": "defined", "fromId": "period-early-science", "metadata": { "note": "Theoretical predictions lead to systematic measurement" } }, { "id": "conn-awareness-to-politics", "toId": "period-political-action", "type": "defined", "fromId": "period-awareness-era", "metadata": { "note": "Scientific consensus compels political action" } }, { "id": "conn-politics-to-crisis", "toId": "period-acceleration-crisis", "type": "defined", "fromId": "period-political-action", "metadata": { "note": "Insufficient action leads to accelerating impacts" } }, { "id": "conn-crisis-to-critical", "toId": "period-critical-decade", "type": "defined", "fromId": "period-acceleration-crisis", "metadata": { "note": "Mounting evidence demands urgent action" } }, { "id": "conn-critical-to-midcentury", "toId": "period-mid-century", "type": "defined", "fromId": "period-critical-decade", "metadata": { "note": "Decisions of the 2020s–2030s determine mid-century outcomes" } }, { "id": "conn-midcentury-to-longterm", "toId": "period-long-term", "type": "defined", "fromId": "period-mid-century", "metadata": { "note": "Cumulative emissions lock in long-term trajectories" } }, { "id": "conn-longterm-to-deep", "toId": "period-deep-future", "type": "defined", "fromId": "period-long-term", "metadata": { "note": "Climate inertia extends consequences for millennia" } }, { "id": "conn-fossil-to-acceleration", "toId": "period-great-acceleration", "type": "defined", "fromId": "period-fossil-fuel-era", "metadata": { "note": "Post-war boom intensifies fossil fuel dependence" } }, { "id": "conn-acceleration-to-transition", "toId": "period-energy-transition", "type": "defined", "fromId": "period-great-acceleration", "metadata": { "note": "Recognition of crisis drives energy transformation" } }, { "id": "conn-transition-to-adaptation", "toId": "period-adaptation-era", "type": "undefined", "fromId": "period-energy-transition", "metadata": { "note": "Even with transition, adaptation becomes essential" } }, { "id": "conn-industrial-to-fossil", "toId": "period-industrial-acceleration", "type": "undefined", "fromId": "period-fossil-fuel-era", "metadata": { "note": "Industrial growth fueled by fossil energy" } }, { "id": "conn-critical-to-adaptation", "toId": "period-adaptation-era", "type": "defined", "fromId": "period-critical-decade", "metadata": { "note": "Unavoidable impacts require adaptation alongside mitigation" } } ] }